ForexGen | US Dollar Under Pressure

US Dollar Under Pressure As Risk Sentiment Pushes Higher (Euro Open)


The Euro climbed steadily higher overnight and the British Pound was not far behind as top Asian stock markets pushed higher despite a swath of dismal Japanese economic data. Equity index futures in Europe and the US point higher, suggesting the US dollar is likely to remain on the defensive.
Key Overnight Developments

• Japanese Economic Indicators Continue to Sink Lower

• Euro, Pound Push Higher in Thin Holiday Trading
Critical Levels

The Euro climbed steadily higher overnight, topping the 1.29 once again to reach as high as 1.2956 before correcting into the 1.2930s. The British Pound was a bit late to the party: sterling spent most of the session in a well-defined 30-pip range but managed to pick up steam late into Asian market hours to retake the 1.54 level.

Asia Session Highlights





















Recession was on full display in the barrage of Japanese economic data that hit the tape overnight. While the Jobless Rate declined to 3.7% in October, it was hardly an improvement: by definition, the metric measures those looking for work but are not able to find it. The improvement in the headline figure this time around occurred because people stopped looking and thereby were not included in the count. Indeed, the ratio of available vacancies to seeking applicants dropped to 0.80, the lowest in over four years. Businesses are clearly cutting back as global demand dwindles: Industrial Production slowed -7.1% in the year to October, a record low. With firms scaling back their operations and trimming staff, it is no wonder that Household Spending declined again in October, down -3.3% from the preceding month, while the annualized Retail Trade metric declined to the lowest in 15 months. As economists predicted, the sluggish pace of economic activity has dampened inflation, with the Consumer Price Index registering at just 1.7% in October. The pace of price growth has declined a hefty 27% since peaking with commodity prices in July.

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ForexGen | China Says Impact of Global Crisis Deepening

Impact of global crisis on China deepening, official warns job losses could fuel instability

China's top economic planner warned Thursday that the impact of the global financial crisis is worsening and said rising job losses could fuel instability.

Beijing announced its biggest interest rate cut in 11 years on Wednesday to boost consumer and company spending, reflecting its growing urgency about reviving growth as it launches a multibillion-dollar stimulus package.

"This crisis is spreading all over the world and its impact on China's economy is deepening," Zhang Ping, chairman of the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission, said at a news conference. He said economic indicators for November were showing an "even faster decline," though he gave no details.

China's economic growth is expected to fall to about 9 percent this year, down from last year's 11.9 percent. That would be the fastest of any major economy, but Chinese leaders worry about possible unrest as unemployment rises, especially in export industries where factories are shutting down as global demand plummets.

"Excessive production halts and closing of enterprises will cause massive unemployment, which will lead to instability," Zhang said.

The 1.08 percentage-point cut in China's key one-year lending rate on Wednesday -- China's biggest rate cut since 1997 and the fourth in three months -- is "one of the essential measures to stimulate our economic growth," Zhang said.

Zhang said the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion), two-year stimulus package announced Nov. 9 should add about 1 percentage point to China's growth rate. That was below the 2 percentage point increase forecast by independent analysts.

Zhang said Beijing will take steps to boost growth and ensure the economy continues to create jobs. But he did not respond to a question about whether Beijing is planning to enact additional stimulus plans.

A state newspaper reported last weekend that Zhang's agency is working on an additional stimulus package that is meant to supplement the Nov. 9 package with more spending on health, education and other social programs.

The main stimulus package calls for insulating China from the global downturn by injecting money into the economy through higher spending on construction of airports, highways and other projects. It is meant to spur domestic consumption.

The cut in the one-year lending rate to 5.58 percent, effective Thursday, is aimed at encouraging consumers and businesses to borrow and spend, which is seen as a more effective way to fuel growth than government spending.

The stimulus package includes 1.8 trillion yuan ($263 billion) in spending on airports, highways and other, 370 billion yuan ($54 billion) to improve infrastructure in the poor countryside and 350 billion ($51 billion) for environmental projects, according to Zhang.

It also includes 280 billion yuan ($41 billion) for construction of low-income housing and 40 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) for health and education programs, Zhang said.

Zhang said the government is working on how local governments will pay for their share of the stimulus spending. The central government is to supply 1.2 trillion yuan ($175 billion) of the total stimulus spending, with the rest coming from lower-level governments and state companies.

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ForexGen | FTC Tosses Guidance on Tar, Nicotine in Cigarettes

FTC withdraws support for 'flawed' test used to measure tar, nicotine levels in cigarettes

The cigarette industry for 42 years has made factual claims about tar and nicotine levels based on machine testing blessed by the Federal Trade Commission.

Now the FTC has dropped the test, known as the Cambridge Filter Method, like a hot rock.

The commission has rescinded guidance it issued 42 years ago, saying the test method is flawed. It also said the resulting marketing touting tar and nicotine levels could cause consumers to believe that lighter cigarettes were safer.

As a result, future advertising that lists tar levels for cigarettes won't be able to use terms such as "by FTC method."

"Our action today ensures that tobacco companies may not wrap their misleading tar and nicotine ratings in a cloak of government sponsorship," said Commissioner Jon Leibowitz. "Simply put, the FTC will not be a smokescreen for tobacco companies' shameful marketing practices."
The commission rescinded the guidance by a 4-0 vote.

Under the current system, cigarettes with a tar rate above 15 milligrams per cigarette are commonly referred to by the industry as "full flavor." Cigarettes with a tar rating of less than 15 milligrams are referred to as "low" or "light." Cigarettes with a tar rate below 6 are described as "ultra low" or "ultra light."

The National Cancer Institute found that changes in cigarette design reduced the amount of tar and nicotine measured by smoking machines using the Cambridge Filter Method. However, there was no evidence those changes reduced disease for smokers. The machine doesn't take into account the way smokers adjust their behavior, such as taking more or deeper puffs to maintain nicotine levels.

"The most important aspect of this decision is that it says to consumers that tobacco industry claims relating to tar and nicotine are at best flawed and most likely misleading," said Matthew Myers, president of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

The commission said it originally believed in the 1960s that giving consumers uniform, standardized information about tar and nicotine yields of cigarettes would help them make informed decisions about cigarettes. At the time, most public health officials believed that reducing the amount of tar in a cigarette could reduce a smoker's risk of lung cancer. However, that premise is no longer valid.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., introduced legislation this year that would prohibit companies from making claims based on data derived from the FTC's testing method, but the bill did not make it to the full Senate for a vote.

"Tobacco companies can no longer rely on the government to back up a flawed testing method that tricks smokers into thinking these cigarettes deliver less tar and nicotine," Lautenberg said.

One FTC commissioner, Pamela Jones Harbor, urged Congress to approve the regulation of tobacco by the Food and Drug Administration. The bill would authorize government scientists to track, analyze and regulate the components of cigarettes.

Tobacco companies have stated clearly over the years that there is no such thing as a safe cigarette. In a statement, Philip Morris USA, the nation's largest tobacco company, said it remains committed to working with the FTC and other federal authorities to identify and adopt testing that improves on the Cambridge method.

The FTC noted that all four major domestic cigarette makers told commissioners the 1966 guidance should be retained until a replacement test method was approved.

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Dollar hits 4-mth low | Lehman Brothers | ForexGen Follow Up

The move hit the dollar by dashing hopes for a comprehensive solution to the credit crisis that has claimed a variety of major financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers this month, stirring worries of a deeper economic downturn.

"There are many dollar-selling factors such as a slowing economy, possible Fed rate cuts and an outlook for worsening fiscal conditions for the U.S. government as it is expected to spend money to rescue banks," said Osamu Takashima, chief currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

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Terminate Deals With Lehman | ForexGen News

Meanwhile, banks have been asked to terminate deals with Lehman subsidiaries, which were still operational, in due course of time in the open market or through bilateral negotiations with interested parties.

In a meeting held with the Fixed Income and Money Market Dealers’ Association, various foreign and Indian banks have already served their termination notices with regard to deals in structured products.

As for the exposure to the real estate sector in India, RBI is of the view that the government’s press note-5 on foreign direct investment (FDI) provides for exemption from the lock-in period in real estate investments in special cases. As per rules, FDI in real estate has a lock-in period of three years before any foreign entity could exit investments in India.

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