Monday, 22 December 2008

Yen Technical Outlook

The US Dollar/Japanese Yen may continue to bounce from recent multi-year lows, as the pair has hit the bottom of its multi-year trend channel and quickly reversed.

The lows likewise coincide with heavily oversold weekly oscillators, and a return to more normal market conditions would favor further US Dollar recovery.

Multi-year spike lows at 87.14 should serve as a base, while next resistance is seen at the top of its short-term downtrend near 93.00.

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Sunday, 21 December 2008

Stock Investors Hope Santa Touches Down

Investors could do their holiday shopping on Wall Street this week as bargain-basement prices for stocks and optimism over efforts to fight the year-long recession may prompt a year-end rally.
But not even a Santa Claus rally to end the year can rescue 2008 from going into the books as the worst for stocks since the Great Depression, thanks to the body blow delivered by the housing market slump, credit crisis and, finally, recession.
With just seven trading days left, the benchmark S&P 500 index is down 39.5 percent for the year, on pace perhaps to match Wall Street's second-worst year ever, 1937, when the S&P also plummeted nearly 39 percent. Should no rally develop next week, 2008 could well challenge 1931 -- when the S&P crashed 46 percent -- for the mantle of Wall Street's worst-ever year.

That said, the slump in stocks has left them relatively cheap. And analysts are now more optimistic that unconventional recession-fighting efforts such as the Federal Reserve's big interest-rate cuts may soon gain traction.

"You're getting a lot of people picking through the wreckage of this year and doing some selective buying," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, in Hinsdale, Illinois.
"There are some good bargains out there and there is a fair amount of buying in the marketplace."
This week, market watchers will look at fresh data on the housing market for any sign that the sector is getting closer to a bottom.

HUNTING FOR HOLIDAY BARGAINS

Volume is expected to be light in a week shortened by the Christmas holiday and an early close on Christmas Eve.
The buying spirit tends to visit Wall Street nearly every year, "bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January," according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Santa's appearance on Wall Street has been good for an average 1.5 percent gain since 1969, according to the Almanac, while the absence of such a rally tends to precede times when stocks can be bought at much lower prices.
As of Friday's close, the broad S&P 500 was off about 40 percent from where it started the year, and was down about 44 percent from the all-time high it reached in October 2007.

But the S&P has recovered about 20 percent since hitting an 11-year intraday low in late November, prompting some to speculate that the worst may be over.
"A lot of people are wondering whether they'll get a Santa Claus rally," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.
"Clearly, this is not a normal year, but just the fact that you have history on your side around the New Year's holidays can only be called a positive."

Analysts said sentiment over the outlook for the battered U.S. economy has shifted to a more positive tone as investors were cheered by the Fed's move last week to cut the benchmark fed funds rate to as low as zero and pledge further measures to shore up credit markets.
Optimism over President-elect Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan has added to the more positive tone, helping the market rally in the face of an onslaught of dire economic and corporate outlooks.
"No one is very good at dealing with economic Armageddon, but we have dealt with recessions in the past," Sheldon said.
He noted that more investors are coming around to "the opinion the economy is going through a severe recession, but we've been here before, and we'll get through this at some point. We're starting to see a little more positive sentiment."
WATCHING HOME SALES AND CASH REGISTERS

Among economic indicators due this week are new home sales and existing home sales for November, the final look at gross domestic product for the third quarter, and the final December reading on consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
The home sales figures are not likely to bring much relief, with current forecasted pointing to an 18-year low for new home sales and a nearly 10-year low for sales of existing houses. Meanwhile, the GDP data should confirm the economy, which has been in recession since December 2007, contracted at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter.
Weekly jobless claims will come out a day early on Wednesday because of Thursday's Christmas holiday.
Analysts also will look for anecdotal signs of how retailers fare over the last shopping weekend before the holidays.
Over the weekend, retailers made a last-ditch effort to lure cash-strapped consumers to spend. But Friday's big snowstorm that has blanketed much of the northern half of the country threatened to hold down shopper traffic.

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Thursday, 18 December 2008

Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook


Australian Dollar Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD has satisfied minimum bullish expectations having exceeded .7022.

Still, the objective remains closer to the October 14th high / 38.2% of the decline from .9856; at .7256 (or higher). Near term, the pair could correct along with the other USD pairs. Support begins at .6859.

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

The drop below 1.2120 satisfies minimum expectations for the decline from 1.30. It is still possible that the USDCAD drops below 1.1459 in order to complete a larger 4th wave. It is also possible that a smaller second wave is complete or nearly so.


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Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Euro Soars Against US Dollar

Euro Soars Against US Dollar - Is This a Trend Change or Retracement?

The Euro has registered some very impressive gains against the US dollar this week, adding nearly 5% in just the past two days. The pair is now re-testing the multi-year bullish trend line that had guided price action since 2002 and was broken to the downside at the beginning of October. This is the proverbial line in the sand: if the Euro manages to surpass this juncture, the bearish bias will be violated. However, the possibility remains that current EURUSD strength is corrective and the downtrend will resume following the re-test of support-turned-resistance.

EURUSD Spot (Weekly):



















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Tuesday, 16 December 2008

Dollar Down in European Trading

The U.S. dollar was lower against other major currencies in European trading Tuesday afternoon. Gold rose.

The euro traded at $1.3826, up from $1.3665 late Monday in New York.

Other dollar rates:

--89.94 Japanese yen, down from 90.60

--1.1392 Swiss francs, down from 1.1602

--1.2205 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2389

The British pound was quoted at $1.5344, up from $1.5253.

Gold traded in London at $ 838.25 per troy ounce, up from $826.00 late Monday.

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Monday, 15 December 2008

The Five-Star Rated Hartford MidCap Fund Reopens

One of the best-performing funds in the Morningstar Mid-Cap Growth category (out of 833 funds, based on risk adjusted overall returns as of 11/30/08), reopens to new investors after being closed for more than four years.

The Hartford Mutual Funds today announced that it will reopen the Five-Star Rated1 Hartford MidCap Fund to new investors effective Monday, December 15, 2008.
As a result of the Fund being closed since 2004, it has experienced normal outflows without the offsetting benefit of new cash flows. This has opened up capacity for new investors. In addition, the current market environment has created attractive new investment opportunities for the portfolio management team.

Portfolio Manager Phil Perelmuter, who has managed The Hartford MidCap Fund since its inception in 1997, believes the Fund is well positioned to accept new assets. “There are a lot of attractively priced mid-cap companies,” said Perelmuter. “Opening the Fund to new investors will help allow us to take advantage of these opportunities.”

Perelmuter, one of just 15 portfolio managers with a 10-year track record managing mid-cap portfolios, has garnered many industry accolades, including:

* Winner of the U.S. Lipper Fund Award2 in the MidCap Core Category for funds with a 10-year track record (2008) * Named in Barron’s Top 100 Manager List3 five times (2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2008) * An overall 5-Star Morningstar® Rating (the Fund is rated 4 Stars over three years, and 5 Stars over five years and 10 years—all ratings are as of 11/30/08)

The Fund, sub-advised by Wellington Management Company, LLP, boasts an impressive historical performance record, having outpaced its benchmark (the S&P MidCap 400 Index) in 10 of the last 11 calendar years, and year-to-date through 11/30/08. The Fund has also outperformed its Lipper peer group (Lipper MidCap Core) in nine of the last 11 calendar years, and year-to-date through 11/30/08. (Data Sources: Morningstar and Lipper, 12/08)

According to Morningstar percentile rankings (based on total return), the Fund is one of the top-performing funds in the Mid-Cap Growth category over all time periods (ended 9/30/08):
* Top 10% of its category for 1-year performance (#94 out of 932 funds) * Top 6% for 3-year performance (#51 out of 819 funds) * Top 5% for 5-year performance (#36 out of 679 funds) * Top 3% for 10-year performance (#10 out of 332 funds) * Top 2% for performance since inception on 12/31/97 (#5 out of 288 funds)

In addition to the 5-Star overall rating from Morningstar in the MidCap Growth Category, the Fund is also rated:

4 Stars over three years (out of 833 funds in the category);

5 Stars over five years (out of 633 funds in the category);

5 Stars over 10 years (out of 339 funds in the category);

All ratings are as of 11/30/08, and are based on risk-adjusted return.

Data from Morningstar show that mid-cap stocks have historically performed well following periods of recession. Over the last 30 years, mid-cap stocks have rebounded more strongly than large-cap stocks in the 12 months following the end of the last three official recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (official recession dates were: 7/81-11/82, 7/90-3/91, and 3/01-11/01).

“Historically, mid-cap companies generally have greater growth potential than comparable large-caps, and also offer more seasoned management, greater liquidity and stronger operating histories than many small-cap companies,” said Perelmuter.

“We think there is tremendous value for both current shareholders and new investors in reopening the MidCap Fund at this time,” said Keith Sloane, senior vice president, The Hartford Mutual Funds. “We are very pleased to be able to offer this unique opportunity to get into a highly-sought-after mid-cap fund.” He added, “Investing in mid-cap companies is considered by many financial advisors as a core foundation of strategic asset allocation, and the reopening of the Fund further strengthens our already formidable lineup of style-focused and broad mandate equity funds.”

The Hartford MidCap Fund (symbols – Class A:HFMCX, Class B:HAMBX, Class C:HMDCX) seeks to outperform the S&P MidCap 400 Index by investing in high-quality, established mid-cap companies with good balance sheets, strong management teams, and market leadership in their industry. The investment approach focuses on meeting three imperatives:

* Quality – a focus on industry leaders with high market share
* Diversification – attempt to be invested in all 10 sectors of the market

* Purity – consistent investment in mid-cap companies


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Sunday, 14 December 2008

Stocks Advance Amid Hope For Automaker Rescue


Stocks advance on hopes for automaker rescue as Treasury says it will support Detroit

Wall Street put on another impressive show of resilience Friday, rebounding from an early sell-off to end higher after the government said it would assist troubled U.S. automakers.

The market, which just a week earlier withstood a terrible November employment report, managed its advance after the Treasury Department said it was prepared to assist the nation's Big Three automakers. The Dow Jones industrial average had fallen more than 200 points in early trading after the Senate had killed a $14 billion bailout package for the companies.

"It's hard to say if this is indeed the beginning of a recovery, but it could be," said Matt King, chief investment officer of Bell Investment Advisors. "It seems like the past few Fridays we've ended the week on a positive note."

A week ago, the market shook off the Labor Department's report that the economy lost a larger than expected 533,000 jobs in November. Investors are showing a greater tolerance for bad economic and corporate news, and many analysts believe that the market may have reached a bottom after the horrific selling of the past three months.

Since its Nov. 20 low, the Dow is up 14.3 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 16.9 percent and the Nasdaq composite index has seen a gain of 17.1 percent. Still, from their October 2007 highs, the Dow remains down by 39.1 percent and the S&P 500 index is down 44 percent. The Nasdaq, which peaked at the start of the decade, is down 46.1 percent from its recent top.

Many analysts believe Wall Street is growing more confident that the government's steps to stimulate the economy, including its $700 billion bank bailout program, will work. And so news that the Treasury Department could help prevent bankruptcy filings and job losses in the auto industry helped turn the market around Friday.

"Things are looking a little bit brighter after they made those announcements," said Anthony Conroy, managing director and head trader for BNY ConvergEx Group.

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have said they could run out of cash within weeks without government help. Ford Motor Co., which would also be eligible for aid under the bill, has said it has enough cash to make it through next year.

Some of the market's moves Friday were with an eye toward next week's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. The two-day meeting begins Monday; the Fed is widely expected to lower its key federal funds rate half a percentage point to 0.5 percent, another step by the government toward lifting the economy out of recession.

The Dow rose 64.59, or 0.75 percent, to 8,629.68. The Dow tumbled 196 points Thursday as worries intensified that the auto bill would stall in the Senate.

The S&P 500 index rose 6.14, or 0.70 percent, to 879.73, and the Nasdaq rose 32.84, or 2.18 percent, to 1,540.72.

For the week, the Dow ended with a loss of fewer than 6 points, or 0.07 percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.42 percent, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.08 percent because of Friday's gains. For the year, the Dow is down 34.9 percent, the S&P 500 is down 40.1 percent and the Nasdaq is off 41.9 percent.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 17.22, or 3.82 percent, to 468.43 Friday.

The number of stocks advancing outpaced decliners by 3-to-2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated trading volume came to 5.12 billion shares compared with 5.39 billion Thursday.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.58 percent from 2.63 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill rose to 0.04 percent from 0.02 percent late Thursday. The bill has been in great demand because of the safety it offers investors.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices declined.

Light, sweet crude fell $1.70 to settle at $46.28 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The day's economic news showed continuing weakness, but, as it has done with a steady stream of downbeat data in recent weeks, the market shrugged.

The Labor Department said wholesale prices sank in November for the fourth straight month, raising deflation fears. The Producer Price Index fell a greater-than-expected 2.2 percent as prices for gasoline and other energy prices retreated. That followed a record 2.8 percent drop in October.

Businesses also slashed inventories in October by the largest amount in five years. The Commerce Department said businesses cut what was on shelves and back lots by 0.6 percent, triple the 0.2 percent decline economists expected.

The Commerce Department said retail sales fell by 1.8 percent in November. The decline was less than the 1.9 percent slide economists expected but the drop marked the fifth straight monthly decline -- a period of weakness never before seen on the government's retail sales records.

Next week's readings include the Consumer Price Index and housing starts for November.

The week also brings quarterly results from Wall Street's brokerages, which have been badly hurt by the stock market's tumble, the slowdown in the economy and the freeze-up in the credit markets.

GM ended down 18 cents, or 4.4 percent, at $3.94 after declining as much as 37 percent in the session. Ford rose 14 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $3.04. Chrysler isn't publicly traded.

But even a potential lifeline for Detroit couldn't ease all the concerns about job losses. Bank of America Corp. said late Thursday it expected to cut as many as 35,000 jobs over the next three years, including some from investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co., which it agreed to buy in September. Bank of America rose 2 cents to $14.93.

Investors grappled with further prospects of diminished confidence in Wall Street. Late Thursday, Wall Street veteran Bernard L. Madoff was arrested on a securities fraud charge. Madoff, who 18 years ago was chairman of the Nasdaq stock market, was accused of running a phony investment business that lost at least $50 billion and that he called a "giant Ponzi scheme," prosecutors said.

"It's not a happy day when you see a $50 billion fraud," said Ken Mayland, president of research firm ClearView Economics. "Things like that will just erode the public's confidence in the market."

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 5.56 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.47 percent, Germany's DAX index slid 2.18 percent, and France's CAC-40 declined 2.80 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 5.74, or 0.07 percent, at 8,629.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 3.66, or 0.42 percent, at 879.73. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week up 31.41, or 2.08 percent, at 1,540.72.

The Russell 2000 index finished the week up 7.34, or 1.59 percent, at 468.43.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 8,800.18, up 63.04 points, or 0.72 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,993.96.

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