An ECB Rate Cut Would Justify Bearish Technical Outlook

The ECB is expecting to cut their benchmark rate by 50 bps today according to a Bloomberg survey. However, the slew of dour financial data that has cross the wires recently including a record low reading in the service sector and a 0.8% decline in retail sales, has raised hopes for a deeper cut.





Fundamental Outlook

The ECB is expecting to cut their benchmark rate by 50 bps today according to a Bloomberg survey. However, the slew of dour financial data that has cross the wires recently including a record low reading in the service sector and a 0.8% decline in retail sales, has raised hopes for a deeper cut. Therefore, if the central bank meets expectations we could see bullish price reaction as it would signal that the MPC plans to continue their measured approach to monetary policy despite other central banks aggressive easing. President Trichet’s comments following the announcement will give the clearest signal to future bias and may have the biggest influence on longer term price direction. Technical’s are calling for an initial move higher followed by a larger decline with a target below 1.2330.

Technical Outlook


I am sticking with the triangle pattern. Triangles consist of 5 waves, a-b-c-d-e. If a triangle is underway, then wave e is underway now (possibly complete at 1.2772) and will end as a spike above 1.2772. Resistance begins at 1.28 and extends as high as 1.30. Rallies into this zone should be sold.






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USD/CAD Short-Term Forex Technical Outlook

The USDCAD continues to hold within an upward trend, and the technical outlook favors a bullish outlook for the pair.

Currency Pair: USD/CAD
Chart: 60 Min Charts
Short-Term Bias: Bullish
Analysis




















The USDCAD continues to hold within an upward trend, and the technical outlook favors a bullish outlook for the pair. After falling to a low of 1.1463 on 11/5, the pair bounced back to reach a high of 1.2986 on 11/21, and may push higher over the near-term as investors curb their appetite for risk. During the previous trading session, we saw the pair make an attempt to cross above 1.2660-70 (21.4% Fib level), but the lack of momentum to push higher paired with the divergence from the 120 SMA suggests that the pair may pull back over the remainder of the week.

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Yen Technical Outlook

Staying bearish the USDJPY has proved a wise decision although the decline over the last month has been choppy.

As long as price remains below 96 (below the resistance line from early October), bearish potential is significant (below 80).

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British Pound Technical Outlook

The rally from 1.4554 is probably wave 4 of (3) (within a 5 wave decline from 2.1160).

Resistance does not begin until 1.60 and there is potential for a move back to 1.67 (38.2% Fibonacci and October 30 high). 1.4554 should remain intact if a larger rally (even if just corrective) has started.

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Swiss Franc Technical Outlook

Higher highs and higher lows since the March low favors bulls longer term.

Near term, the decline from the top side of the channel is impulsive and the rally from 1.1828 is corrective. Expect weakness below 1.1828 in the next several weeks.


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